Friday, August 29, 2008

Say Goodnight, John -- UPDATED AGAIN

UPDATED - UPDATED AGAIN NOV. 3, 2008

I wrote this post back in August, right after Sara Palin was selected as John McCain's running mate. I was right back then, and I left the post up throughout the strong, albeit brief, conservative euporia over the pick. I knew that would wear off because, quite simply, I knew the more people got to know Sara Palin the more they would realize there really isn't anything to know. She's nice and likable, certainly, but the fact of the matter is she is perhaps THE most inexperienced person ever to be thrust into the limelight of major American politics. It was clear she was chosen purely based upon her gender, which sadly cheapens what little experience she does have. She offered little, if anything to the ticket and I'd argue (and I believe the coming post mortem will reveal) she actually hurt McCain's chances - rather substantially.

I stand by my original analysis...choosing Mike Huckabee would have done FAR, FAR more good for the McCain campaign. In fact, considering Huckabee's strong appeal among Christian and social conservatives, combined with his strong populist appeal (even BEFORE the historic market meltdown and Wall Street bailout)...we'd be looking at a Republican win tomorrow if McCain had chosen Huckabee.

Ah well....nobody ever listened to me.

Original post: 8/29/08

Well....McCain chose Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, in what appears to be an obvious attempt to pander to disappointed Hillary supporters.

I don't think its going to work. Here's just a few reasons:

1) Women are smarter than that. I think this insults them.

2) Hillary supporters tend to be very, very liberal...especially on abortion rights. Are they really going to jump on the McCain/Palin bandwagon -- a highly conservative, Pro-Life ticket-- merely because Palin is female? I don't think so.

3) McCain has been attacking Obama's lack of experience. The choice of a first term Governor whose only prior experience was as Mayor of Bugtussel, Alaska opens the door for the Obama campaign to point out that, if elected, she will be a heartbeat from the Presidency -- and that everyone should remember McCain is old as dirt and has cancer. This pick not only undercuts the key argument against Obama, but it also allows the Obama camp to call into question McCain's judgement. Watch for it...the Obama people are already sharpening their knives.

4) Is Palin going to help the McCain campaing bring in any electoral votes from the continental U.S? Will she help shore up the South? Will she help anything? No, I don't think so.

So Goodnight, John. I'll be back with Mike Huckabee for 2012.

BSR

UPDATE

I made the above prediction at 9 AM this morning.

This afternoon Paul Begala, Democratic mouthpiece, said this:

"For a man who is 72 years old and has had four bouts with cancer to have chosen someone so completely unqualified to become president is shockingly irresponsible. Suddenly, McCain's age and health become central issues in the campaign, as does his judgment."

Here is comes folks. You heard it here first.

BSR

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

An Open Letter to John McCain

Dear John,

I've believed since 1996 that Mike Huckabee is destined to be President, and I still do. I started blogging about it in 2005 and it almost became a reality earlier this year. Had the hopeless Fred Thompson not remained in the race, Mike Huckabee would likely have beaten you in South Carolina and would very likely be the nominee today. Throughout the race, however, Mike Huckabee never spoke ill of you - in fact, he spoke admirably of you and believes you to be a true American hero.

Yes, I still believe Mike Huckabee is destined to be President, either as your successor or Obama's. The choice is going to be yours.

I've been suggesting here for some time that Mike Huckabee, now that he will not be the nominee, is the ideal choice for your running mate. At first this was simply because he shores up your weak areas with evangelicals and pro-life'ers. He is also an extremely able campaigner and gifted in debates. Not only that, but he'll deliver the South...without which you cannot win.

Now, events of the last two weeks have shown even MORE reason for Mike Huckabee to be your choice. As Rich Lowry, editor of National Review says today:

"...wouldn't Huckabee make a lot of sense given the things we've learned the last two weeks?

1) McCain might have a "wealth problem," and certainly Democrats are going to try to hit his wealth for all its worth in their play for working-class voters; Huckabee doesn't have a problem on this front, and has lots of working-class cred.

2) The pro-choice trial balloon hasn't been well received, and it's clear that a pro-choice nominee would create a major disruption; Huckabee is pro-life.

3) Obama picked Biden who is going to a vivid presence on the stump and could be formidable in debate; Huckabee is a great campaigner and might be just the guy to puncture Biden in a debate.

4) The McCain folks have made a huge deal about differences between Obama and Biden during the primaries; McCain and Huckabee didn't have much in the way of differences and went out of their way to praise each other."

So, Mr. McCain, the choice is yours. Choose Huckabee and he'll be your successor, building upon the success of your historic administration. Or, choose someone else and Huckabee will be Obama's successor, forced to rebuild a party left in tatters as you mourn what might have been.

BSR